I hope readers will forgive me for relying closely on a contemporary interview at Dialogue Works to evaluate the prospects for a “deal” between the US and Iran on its nuclear enrichment program and different safety issues. Nevertheless, former ambassador Chas Freeman, former Protection and State Division official Larry Wilkerson and Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Accountable Statecraft, all have intensive expertise within the area and have been holding abreast of the newest developments concerning the oblique negotiations, falsely hyped by Trump as direct talks, set for Saturday in Oman.
The stakes are very excessive. The US has made a present of power, shifting not simply naval property into the world and B2 stealth bombers to Diego Garcia, but in addition in keeping with Wilkerson in different YouTube talks, different strike forces. A brand new broadcast by The Digital Intifada confirms Wilkerson, per the map at 16:45 and the extra element supplied beginning at 15:55, of THADD and Patriot missile launchers being delivered to Israel’s Nevatim air base.
Trump, in a gathering with Netanyahu, as you possibly can see within the Dialogue Works dialogue embedded above, beginning at 1:05, made a barely veiled risk of navy motion if the talks failed.
Within the quick model of what follows, we see little or no motive for optimism. There are already causes to assume the US will proceed to make calls for that quantity to Iran giving up not simply its navy and civilian nuclear packages, but in addition its missiles and its alliances with the so-called Axis of Resistance, which is tantamount to rendering itself defenseless. Alastair Crooke and Douglas Macgregor, amongst others, deemed this to be clearly unacceptable.
Macgregor, in a Choose Napolitano discuss talked about within the section above, ventured that these provision have been designed to be unacceptable and rejected, simply as Austria-Hungary’s ultimatum to Serbia after the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was overreaching by design, and meant, because it did, to function a pretext for going to warfare.
Even when the US is definitely not in search of an excuse to assault Iran and is solely resorting to the Trump default of maximalist calls for to see how a lot it could possibly squeeze out of a counterparty, and is ready to just accept so much much less, it nonetheless appears unlikely that the 2 sides can agree.
I think a core US demand, apart from dismantling the nuclear enrichment program, could be for Iran to get the Ansar Allah (aka Houthis) to cease attacking shipments to Israel. Trump might current the Houthis stopping their marketing campaign as an enormous win, one Joe Biden was unable to attain.
Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem that that’s one thing Iran might ship even when it needed to. Essentially the most it might do was promise to not ship extra funds, weapons, and technical help. The Houthis have company. Alastair Crooke has defined the Houthi tenacity, regardless of taking as a lot punishment as they’ve, as a manifestation of Shia character, significantly the willingness to make sacrifices within the identify of non secular obligation, and so they see combating the Israeli genocide as an obligation. He described how after the Caliphate got here to regulate Shia areas that it barred going to Shia mosques, with the penalty the amputation of a finger. The Shia stored going, dropping all their fingers, then toes, then fingers, then toes. We delicate Westerners can’t comprehend that diploma of dedication to ethical rules.
So I doubt the Iranians can name off Ansar Allah. And if the Iranian tried explaining why, the US group would dismiss that as dangerous religion and/or foot dragging. The trouble to motive would merely enrage the Trump facet.
There may be the additional impediment that the neocons round Trump, and possibly Trump himself, believes the Israel/US propaganda about how the negotiated Iran retaliatory strike into Israel was a failure, and the way the Israel assault on Iran after that did severe harm. John Helmer reported on a current Dialogue Works that Trump has had all of two intelligence briefings since he took workplace; cable TV is a extra essential data supply for him. So it’s a secure guess that he reductions warnings that Iran would survive a US/Israel assault and would then destroy Israel and wreck the world economic system.
That’s earlier than attending to the truth that Israel has company. Netanyahu particularly is decided to escalate in opposition to Iran to save lots of his personal cover. Within the Dialogue Works discuss, one of many interviewees (Wilkerson?) mentioned Netanyahu had rushed to Washington to attempt to get reduction from the then 17% tariffs imposed on Israel. It had been reported, as this supply acknowledged, that Trump refused to go there and as an alternative talked about Iran. As well as, Trump blindsided Netanyahu by saying that “direct” talks with Iran have been set for Saturday. Trita Parsi mentioned the Trump public remarks additionally caught Iran off guard. The timing and site of the talks have been alleged to be stored quiet.1
However Netanyahu, even with being caught off guard, upped the ante by calling for the “Libya” resolution, which was not simply regime change, but in addition the death-by-bayonet-ass-rape of the Gaddafi, celebrated in Hillary Clinton’s “We got here, we noticed, he died” cackle.
As Chas Freeman drily remarked, advocating the Libya resolution to Iran could be like proposing the Pearl Harbor resolution to the US. So even in his temporary airtime, Netanyahu tried to and should have thrown a spanner.
As well as, as we’ve mentioned, a false flag assault is one technique to sandbag negotiations.
However one other seemingly insurmountable obstacle is course of. There merely just isn’t sufficient time. The interviewers allude to that impediment in varied methods however fail to take their observations to its logical conclusion.
Contemplate:
1. The US and Israel are counting on the so-called snapback provisions of the JCPOA to carry Iran to heel2. The quick model is that the US has a bullet-proof means to revive the stringent UN sanctions imposed on Iran that the JCPOA alleviated. However these expire on October 18 except they’re prolonged (unlikely) or the US has an ally set off them, and the UK has already mentioned it will. The Iranian economic system is already in dangerous form. There’s a little bit of a drill concerned in triggering the snapback, so there’s solely a four-plus month window to consummate an settlement.
2. This might be a really advanced settlement when complexity and haste don’t go collectively effectively. As an example, the US, because it has been with Russia, is willfully blind to the impression of its intensive historical past of dangerous religion dealings. Or perhaps US officers actually do have the reminiscence of goldfish. They only can’t recall that it was Trump that selected to exit the JCPOA after which accuse Iran of growing a nuke, regardless of US intelligence businesses persevering with to search out, with a excessive diploma of confidence, that that has not occurred and isn’t but within the works. .
For Iran to comply with what the US needs, it will want safety ensures. However it’s conducting these talks on a bi-lateral foundation. Pray inform, who might present these ensures? Not Russia, provided that the Ukraine talks have gone pear formed plus the US is filled with Putin-haters. Definitely not China. Turkiye had the largest military within the area and is trusted by nobody.
Even placing apart the “How does Iran cut back its threat of being fully violated?” elephant within the room, as Freeman and Wilkerson confused, going again to the JCPOA talks, technical specialists would have to be concerned to barter tremendous factors, equivalent to verification. It’s not clear that the Trump facet understands that and has stored DOGE from firing them.
3. The US facet is inexperienced and with no obvious data of Iran’s tradition or historical past.
4. Trump’s greatest negotiator, who’s main these talks, Steve Witkoff, has a file of failure in making an attempt to play diplomat. This will admittedly be due partly to incapacity to handle his facet, equivalent to undermining by neocons and Trump refusal to make concessions.
As an example, the Russia-US talks on Ukraine, once more underneath Witkoff’s management, are stalled as a result of two US ceasefire schemes, one to cease vitality infrastructure assaults, the opposite to renew the so-called grain deal, each being sabotaged, the primary by Ukraine, the second by the EU. The US appears to do not know what to do now. And even the seeemingly-simple measure, of renormalizing diplomatic relations, additionally appears to not be advance regardless of each side going by the motions of conferences. Reuters and different shops simply launched bland studies on the newest six hour assembly in Istanbul. Though the US facet talked about “constructive” and the Russian, “optimistic” and “transfer ahead,” there was no proof of progress. Reuters talked about solely impasses, just like the failure to revive banking companies for Russian staffs and the US insistence that Russia rent some locals (huh?), and settlement that flights needs to be resumed however no indication that was being made to occur. Reuters additionally threw in on the finish: “Among the many points is diplomatic property.”
John Helmer clarified:
ANOTHER NOTHING BURGER FROM TRUMP TO PUTIN. Sonata Coulter of State Dept in Istanbul talks with Alexander Darchiev of Rus ForMin fail to agree on restoration of Rus Emb property in US aside from checking account to pay native payments. https://t.co/rPzGwVJoOw pic.twitter.com/9Fm05rPXp6
— Dances_with_Bears (@bears_with) April 11, 2025
So if the US can’t even take this small step to point out it could possibly do one thing to assist Russia that may also assist the US, how can they be taken critically? Is that this simply spite over Russia fully moderately sticking to its weapons on the grain deal, or US incompetence? Both means, it does no encourage confidence.
On the opposite facet of the ledger, Trump actually wants a win. However what does that seem like to him? He’s already demonstrated a surprising cavalierness about wanton destruction. Being acknowledged as a driver of occasions is extra essential to him than outcomes. So what if he begins World Battle III?
Now Witkoff is having a gathering with Putin proper on the eve of the talks with Iran. However I don’t see this as as doubtlessly de-escalatory because it should be. If the US had needed to think about Russia’s perspective and extra essential, any sign relating to its place vis-a-vis Iran, or alternatively needed recommendation, the time to have finished that might not be so near the precise assembly. Once more, there’s not sufficient time to meaningfully course change, solely course tweak, when Putin’s views ought to have been a significant component in devising the Iran negotiations technique.
Now admittedly, the Trump Administration doesn’t hew to something resembling regular habits. However the timing of the Putin discuss means that to the extent that they discuss Iran (which Witkoff might additionally oddly reduce) is in keeping with Witkoff seeing himself as primarily giving Putin a normal heads up, as Rubio did with Lavrov earlier than the US resumed assaults on the Houthis. Once more, as Larry Johnson mentioned in a contemporary discuss with Nima, Putin might effectively give Witkoff a “Are you Individuals nuts?” degree talking-to. However I don’t see Witkoff having a whole lot of levels of freedom at this hour. Nevertheless, if the talks don’t go the best way he and Trump would really like, any Putin enter would possibly acquire much more weight.
Now admittedly, the Pentagon should know that attacking Iran could be a large dropping proposition. However dumb-as-a-rock bully Hegseth is in cost, and has simply purged a whole lot of generals. Those left have been presumably chosen for his or her dearth of range factors and toadying tendencies. So the wanted naysaying could also be in absence.
Now Trump does have a good fallback place, which is solely to take advantage of the snapback provisions. Iran is punished. Trump honor is saved. However is that going to offer sufficiently excessive drama and demonstration of dominance to go well with Trump’s true pursuits?
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1 I don’t see the talks being “oblique” however in the identical constructing as a optimistic an indication as different make it out to be. Given Trump’s repeated insistence that that the talks be direct, after which him needing to misrepresent that to save lots of face, Iran might have agreed or provided to have the 2 events in shut proximity as a concession. Some specialists contend this implies the talks on the spot may very well be flipped to direct. That could be the US hope however Individuals prefer to rush negotiations.
2 From IranWire:
As October 18, 2025, approaches – the tenth anniversary of the JCPOA and the deadline for deciding whether or not to terminate or lengthen UN Safety Council Decision 2231 – the snapback mechanism outlined within the decision has as soon as once more drawn consideration in Iran.
UN Safety Council Decision 2231 was adopted after the JCPOA settlement was reached, and it annulled six earlier Safety Council resolutions relating to Iran’s nuclear program and many of the UN sanctions.
Nevertheless, it included a provision that if the Islamic Republic fails to adjust to the JCPOA, the sanctions might rapidly be reimposed.
Britain has mentioned it’s ready to set off the snapback mechanism in opposition to Iran over violations of the nuclear deal.
How Does the Snapback Mechanism Work?
Any of the present members of the JCPOA – France, the UK, Germany, China, and Russia – can invoke the snapback mechanism in the event that they declare Iran has violated the settlement.
The USA, having withdrawn from the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, has misplaced its political leverage to make use of snapback.
Nevertheless, it could possibly request its activation by different nations. The U.S. authorities failed in its try to invoke snapback throughout the first time period of Trump’s presidency.
4 of the JCPOA member states which might be everlasting members of the UN Safety Council can immediately activate the mechanism.
Germany, which isn’t a member of the Safety Council, should search activation by one among its everlasting members.
In step one, a number of JCPOA member states should ship a letter to the UN Secretary-Basic and the president of the Safety Council about Iran’s non-compliance with the phrases of the settlement.
As soon as the letter is submitted, the president of the Safety Council should inform the opposite members of the warning.
The Safety Council has 10 days from the formal receipt of the letter to vote on a draft decision relating to the continuation or termination of the suspension of Safety Council sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
No veto energy exists, and the time-frame is just 30 days.
Within the Safety Council’s vote on the decision, veto energy was eliminated following a proposal by Russia, which means no nation might block the draft decision or forestall the return of sanctions on Iran utilizing a veto.
If a rustic makes use of its veto, it will successfully veto the continuation of sanctions reduction for Iran, resulting in the quick reimposition of UN Safety Council sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program.
The continuation of sanctions reduction can solely be accepted if 9 votes in favor are achieved within the Safety Council, with no everlasting member vetoing it.
