TUE: US-China truce deadline (more likely to be prolonged), RBA Announcement (Aug), UK Jobs Report (Jun), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US CPI (Jul), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR
WED: German Remaining CPI (Jul), Spanish Remaining CPI (Jul)
THU: Norges Financial institution Announcement, Australian Jobs Report (Jul), UK GDP (Jun/Q2), Swedish CPIF (Jul), EZ Flash GDP (Q2) and Employment (Q2), US PPI (Jul)
FRI: Japanese GDP (Q2), Chinese language Exercise Knowledge (Jul), US Retail Gross sales (Jul), US College of Michigan Prelim (Aug)
POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN SUMMIT (TBC): The Kremlin stated a US–Russia summit will happen “within the coming days,” whereas the White Home stated it’s engaged on the main points and that President Trump is open to the assembly. Russia’s deputy UN ambassador, Polyanskiy, stated Russian President Putin could meet President Trump subsequent week, however was not conscious of any deliberate assembly between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky.
Putin urged the UAE as a “appropriate” venue following talks with UAE President Al Nahyan. Kremlin aide Ushakov stated discussions will give attention to a Ukraine ceasefire however dismissed Washington’s point out of a trilateral summit with Zelensky, with Putin reiterating situations for such a gathering are “removed from” being met.
The summit comes amid Trump’s just lately shortened deadline for Moscow to point out progress or face new sanctions; some analysts counsel Putin could also be utilizing the talks to purchase time and blunt US measures. Kyiv and European leaders stay cautious of any deal struck with out Ukraine current, warning it might contain territorial concessions. Markets will doubtless give attention to affirmation of timing, venue, and thereafter, whether or not the summit produces substance.
On the flip facet, a scarcity of progress might see further Russian sanctions alongside secondary sanctions for international locations doing enterprise with Russia.
US-CHINA TRUCE DEADLINE (TUE): The US-China tariff truce, set to run out on August twelfth, is more likely to be prolonged by 90 days, in line with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Thursday. Following the assembly in Sweden, Beijing has confirmed consensus on the extension, however the White Home has but to formally announce the transfer, with USTR Greer saying the 2 sides are “working in direction of” a deal.
The present pause follows months of tariff escalation, with US duties on Chinese language imports reaching as much as 145% since April, met in flip by Chinese language retaliatory tariffs of as much as 125% and export controls on key uncooked supplies. The choice comes as US President Trump’s new tariffs on imports from ~90 international locations took impact on August seventh, while extra notably for Beijing, the US imposed an additional 25% stacked penalty on India for the import of Russian oil, with China additionally doubtless within the firing line. Markets will give attention to affirmation of the extension and extension interval, alongside any threats of penalties, while there’s a non-zero likelihood of no extension and a return to eye-watering tariffs.
RBA ANNOUNCEMENT (TUE): The RBA is more likely to lower charges at its assembly subsequent week as a latest Reuters ballot confirmed all 40 economists surveyed unanimously count on the RBA to chop the Money Price by 25bps to three.60%, whereas cash markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a 25bps lower and a 2% likelihood of a bigger 50bps discount.
As a reminder, the RBA stunned markets on the final assembly by pausing on charges amid large expectations for a 25bps lower, whereas its resolution was made by a majority of 6-3 votes and said that the Board will likely be attentive to the information and evolving evaluation of dangers to information its selections.
RBA additionally famous that inflation has continued to reasonable and the outlook stays unsure, though the Board continues to guage that the dangers to inflation have turn out to be extra balanced and the labour market stays sturdy. Moreover, the Board remained cautious in regards to the outlook, significantly given the heightened stage of uncertainty about each combination demand and provide, and it judged that it might await a little bit extra data to substantiate that inflation stays on observe to achieve 2.5% on a sustainable foundation.
RBA Governor Bullock famous throughout the post-meeting presser that there will likely be extra knowledge and information by the following assembly, and it was applicable to have a cautious stance on easing, however famous she is assured they’re on a path to ease additional, though timing is the query they usually can count on charges to say no if inflation slows as anticipated.
Since then, the language from the central financial institution hasn’t supplied a lot to shift the dial, though the information releases would assist the case for a lower after disappointing jobs knowledge which confirmed the Unemployment Price unexpectedly rose in June to its highest in three and a half years of 4.3% (Prev. 4.1%), whereas inflation continued to melt in Q2 with headline Australian CPI YY slowing to 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.4%).
UK JOBS REPORT (TUE): Expectations are for the ILO within the 3-month interval to June to carry regular at 4.7%, while common earnings (ex-bonus) 3M/YY are forecast to stay at 5.0%, in line with Reuters. As a reminder, the prior launch confirmed the ILO unemployment fee continued to tick greater, rising to 4.7% within the 3M interval to Might from 3.6%.
Nevertheless, the massive contraction within the Might HMRC payrolls change was revised materially greater and wage development remained at an elevated fee. This time round, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics count on the upcoming report to point out “payroll job falls easing and earnings development holding at a stable tempo”. Extra particularly, the consultancy is of the view that June’s payroll drop will likely be revised to a smaller 8K month-to-month fall and July’s print to come back in at -7k.
For the unemployment fee, PM expects one other print of 4.7%, while vacancies seem to have stabilised and will even be rising once more. On the wage entrance, Pantheon expects a slowdown within the 3M Y/Y ex-bonus metric to gradual to 4.8% from 4.9%, which might be under the MPC’s Q2 forecast of 5.2%.
From a coverage perspective, up till the August BoE coverage announcement, it had appeared that the MPC was more and more targeted on the loosening within the labour market. Nevertheless, absent a marked deterioration within the upcoming report, the most recent vote break up means that the stubbornness of inflation might restrict the BoE’s easing plans. Because it stands, the following 25bps fee lower is just not totally priced till February 2026.
US CPI (TUE): US July is anticipated to rise by +0.2% M/M on the headline stage (prev. +0.3%), with the seen rising to 2.8% Y/Y from 2.7%. The of inflation is anticipated to rise by +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.2%), with the annual fee of anticipated to rise to three.0% Y/Y from 2.9%. Wells Fargo says that the information will deliver additional indicators of upper tariffs pushing up costs.
“It’s nonetheless early within the value adjustment course of to see how greater import taxes will finally be distributed between the end-customer, home sellers and overseas exporters,” the financial institution writes, “on the similar time, rising client fatigue is making it tougher to lift costs basically.”
Wells Fargo expects inflation to choose up, however not ratchet greater, in H2 of this yr, and sees each the core CPI and deflator returning to round 3% in This fall. Some on the are extra involved in regards to the labour market (Waller and Bowman), however others nonetheless imagine that inflation is additional away from the Fed’s objectives. Excessive inflation and fears of upper inflation forward in response to tariffs is seeing the Fed maintain a wait-and-see strategy.
Nevertheless, with the latest July portray a softer image of the labour market than initially thought (as a consequence of chunky downward revisions), markets at the moment are on the lookout for a fee lower in September. Fed’s Daly has since spoken on the matter, noting the Fed can’t wait eternally.
NORGES BANK ANNOUNCEMENT: Norges Financial institution is anticipated to maintain charges regular at 4.25%, after the Financial institution unexpectedly lower charges by 25bps on the final assembly. Policymakers defined their resolution by suggesting core inflation declined considerably sooner than anticipated, and as such, their inflation outlook is decrease than beforehand anticipated.
On future coverage, the Financial institution stated it “will likely be decreased additional in the midst of 2025”, ought to the economic system evolve as projected. Into this assembly, the Financial institution can have two inflation experiences to digest; June’s Core CPI-ATE printed a contact above the consensus (however in keeping with Norges Financial institution’s personal forecast). July’s metrics are but to come back out, SEB predicts CPI-ATE (Y/Y) will print at 3.0% (vs. Norges Financial institution forecast of three.1%).
Given each SEB and Danske Financial institution (CSE:) name for a lower in September and December, a softer inflation outturn for July might have coverage implications within the immediacy – significantly within the context of a step by step cooling labour market.
AUSTRALIAN JOBS REPORT (THU): There are at present no forecasts for the Australian jobs report, which in June metrics missed expectations, with employment rising simply 2k (exp. +20k) and the jobless fee climbing to 4.3% (exp. 4.1%) – the best since late 2021. The report comes after the RBA’s August assembly, by which the central financial institution is more likely to lower charges.
A latest Reuters ballot confirmed all 40 economists surveyed unanimously count on the RBA to chop the Money Price by 25bps to three.60%, whereas cash markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a 25bps lower and a 2% likelihood of a bigger 50bps discount.
As a reminder, the RBA stunned markets on the final assembly by pausing on charges amid large expectations for a 25bps lower, whereas its resolution was made by a majority of 6-3 votes, and it said that the Board will likely be attentive to the information and evolving evaluation of dangers to information its selections. Markets will give attention to whether or not the July jobs knowledge confirms a development of soppy hiring and rising unemployment.
UK GDP (THU): Expectations are for M/M in June to choose as much as 0.1% from -0.1% with the Q/Q anticipated to gradual to 0.1% from 0.7%. As a reminder, the Might launch confirmed a second M/M month-to-month decline. Albeit it adopted on from a robust Q1, which was artificially boosted by the front-loading of anticipated tariffs.
This time round, analysts at Investec (LON:) maintain an above-consensus forecast of +0.3%, noting that “manufacturing exercise, in line with the PMI indices, seems much less mushy than earlier than”. Moreover, the desk seems for an enlargement within the providers sector and for building to rebound from the 0.6% retracement seen in Might.
A 0.3% outturn would result in a Q2 Q/Q fee of 0.2% and go away the economic system able to develop by some 1.2%-1.3% over 2025 as an entire, a contact above the official Spring Assertion forecast from the OBR of 1.0%. From a coverage perspective, a mushy outturn would additional restrict accessible headroom for UK Chancellor Reeves and sure see desks revise up their forecasts for the continued “black gap” within the UK’s funds.
The implications for financial coverage are doubtless much less extreme, with the MPC extra biased to see how developments on the inflation entrance prove.
JAPANESE GDP (FRI): Japanese Y/Y for Q2 is anticipated to print at -0.7% (prev. +2.2% in Q1). Industrial manufacturing is anticipated at +1.7% for June (vs -0.1% in Might). June Industrial Manufacturing is anticipated at +1.7% (prev. -0.1%). ING notes exports weakened sharply in Q2, with inventories additionally dragging, although providers and personal consumption have proven restoration.
The BoJ’s newest assembly saved charges at 0.50% unanimously, reiterating readiness to hike if the economic system and costs observe forecasts, however emphasising excessive trade-policy uncertainty. Governor Ueda, on the post-policy presser, stated the Japan-US commerce deal was “nice progress”, decreasing draw back dangers however with tariff impacts but to totally emerge; he expects some damaging impact in H2, although a tariff-driven financial nose-dive now appears unlikely.
Underlying inflation is seen stalling earlier than step by step re-accelerating, with reaching 2% “nearer than earlier than,” and wage development anticipated to show constructive by year-end. There was additionally confusion relating to the US-Japan commerce deal, by which “tariff stacking” noticed miscommunication, though on Friday, Japan’s commerce negotiator Akazawa stated that they’ve been capable of affirm a non-stacking stance from the US, and there’s no discrepancy between the US and Japan that there is no such thing as a tariff stacking.
CHINESE ACTIVITY DATA (FRI): There are at present no central expectations for the Chinese language exercise knowledge, though the development is anticipated to point out additional moderation in financial exercise. ING sees slowing to ~6.2% Y/Y (prev. 6.5%), retail gross sales easing to 4.6% Y/Y (because the increase from trade-in insurance policies peaks), and stuck asset funding holding close to 2.8% Y/Y YTD amid subdued personal sector participation.
The information, nonetheless, is lagging and will show to be stale, contingent on the US-China tariff truce, which is about to run out on August twelfth. The truce is more likely to be prolonged by 90 days, in line with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Thursday. That being stated, contributors ought to be cognizant that there’s a non-zero likelihood of no extension and a return to eye-watering tariffs.
US RETAIL SALES (FRI): Headline are anticipated to rise by +0.5% M/M in July (prev. +0.6%), with the ex-autos measure seen cooling to +0.2% M/M (prev. +0.5%). Retail gross sales in June rose greater than anticipated, partly as a consequence of a shock leap in auto gross sales. Nevertheless, Pantheon Macroeconomics famous that the information was flattered by this acquire, regardless of falling unit gross sales and rising costs from tariffs.
Pantheon expects actual retail spending to stagnate forward, with Q3 consumption more likely to develop by lower than 1%. Contributors will likely be watching the Retail Gross sales knowledge to see if there’s a slowdown in client spending, given the latest jobs report confirmed a weaker labour market than initially thought as a result of chunky, downward two-month internet revisions.
This text initially appeared on Newsquawk.
