Final week, President Trump ordered an plane provider strike group into the waters off Venezuela. The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the Navy’s most superior plane provider, and all of the warships that accompany it’s the strongest signal but that the Trump administration intends to escalate its operations within the area.
It comes after US forces struck at the least ten boats the administration claims had been smuggling medication from Venezuela, and after the president licensed covert CIA operations towards the Venezuelan authorities run by President Nicolas Maduro.
Publicly, this mobilization of US forces is solely an effort to disrupt the movement of lethal medication into america. Trump and his workforce have cited the continuing fentanyl epidemic to justify the airstrikes on these alleged drug boats. Because the administration frames it, the boys on these boats are terrorists who’re, in essence, attacking People by flooding this nation with fentanyl—a particularly potent artificial opioid. And, due to this fact, the airstrikes that took them out had been simple acts of self-defense.
Nonetheless, this excuse utterly falls aside with even the slightest look into how American customers are getting their fentanyl.
It seems, it’s not a lot of a thriller. Fentanyl is artificial, that means it’s produced in a lab moderately than being derived from a plant like heroin or cocaine. A lot of the black-market fentanyl People are consuming is being made in clandestine labs in Mexico with chemical substances shipped from China or India. Actually, these precursor chemical substances are sometimes shipped to Canada or the US after which smuggled into Mexico, to obscure their origin, the place they’re then used to provide fentanyl that’s smuggled again into the US.
And the way is it smuggled into the US? In keeping with the DEA and information from CBP and the US Sentencing Fee, the overwhelming majority of illicit fentanyl getting into the nation is hidden in autos being pushed throughout the southern border at authorized ports of entry, primarily by younger males with US citizenship.
That makes plenty of sense. As a result of fentanyl is so potent, plenty of demand could be met from a relatively small stash that’s comparatively simple to cover in autos. And it’s simpler to hide a small stash of medication on a authorized traveler or in a cache of authorized items than it’s to cover a whole group of smugglers making an attempt to cross the border illegally.
So, once more, in response to the DEA, a lot of the illicit fentanyl People are consuming is being produced in Mexico after which pushed over the border at authorized crossings, primarily into Arizona and California, the place it’s then transported by automotive to sellers throughout the nation.
Nowhere within the DEA’s eighty-page 2025 Nationwide Drug Risk Evaluation, detailing the present state of the illicit drug commerce, are maritime smuggling routes off the coast of Venezuela even talked about. As a result of that’s not how medication like fentanyl are attending to the US.
That doesn’t essentially imply these had been harmless fishing vessels. These boats had been working alongside recognized drug smuggling routes. However, particularly, the waters and islands off of Venezuela’s coast are primarily used to smuggle cocaine from Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru to Europe—not the US.
That means, if Trump and his workforce had been actually attempting to disrupt the movement of fentanyl into the US, they might not be specializing in Venezuela.
The counter-narcotic veneer is probably going being trotted out, not as a result of it’s true, however as a result of the administration has decided that it’s the only solution to garner sufficient public help for the strikes it needs to make towards the Venezuelan regime.
So what are the true causes?
As with most issues the federal authorities does, it’s finest not to consider a single group bringing this about however of a coalition of curiosity teams rallying round a coverage as a result of it advantages all of them in several methods. And there are definitely teams that stand to learn from a conflict and/or a regime change in Venezuela.
One clear a part of the coalition is ExxonMobil. The power firm has been lobbying laborious for the American authorities to get extra aggressive towards the present Venezuelan regime because it found and started drilling a large oil deposit within the waters off a disputed area of Guyana that Venezuela claims. Not solely would the set up of a US-friendly regime in Caracas safe Exxon’s entry to this offshore oil discipline, it might additionally consequence within the firm regaining entry to Venezuela—essentially the most oil-rich nation on Earth—eighteen years after new laws drove Exxon to drag in a foreign country fully.
The Venezuelan opposition, which is ready to take energy if the present regime falls, has additionally gone to nice lengths to court docket different well-connected American corporations, promising profitable alternatives to entry Venezuela’s shoppers and in depth pure assets if Maduro had been to fall.
Throughout the authorities, there are conflict hawks who’ve been attempting to result in regime change in Venezuela for many years. Nowadays, these varieties have discovered their champion in Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has helped make confronting Maduro a centerpiece of Trump’s overseas coverage and labored laborious to push the official US place that the present Venezuelan regime is illegitimate.
Lastly, there are the same old suspects at weapons corporations and within the numerous companies making up the so-called nationwide safety state who need to defend their income and jobs as Trump tries to wind down the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
All of those motivations for attacking Venezuela or pursuing regime change in Caracas are much more coherent and plausible than the official rationalization that this latest escalation is supposed to cease fentanyl smuggling that’s largely taking place three thousand miles away.
If the Trump administration actually believes that making an attempt one other regime change is within the curiosity of the American folks, then they need to really make that case. In the event that they proceed to cover behind an apparent lie, it means they know that it isn’t.
