That 99 % modelling-quality back-test may be a ticking time-bomb. Right here’s learn how to defuse it in quarter-hour—earlier than it blows a gap in your reside account.
1 — Why Curve-Becoming Destroys Actual-Cash Efficiency
Over-optimisation is the digital model of hindsight buying and selling: you retain tweaking parameters till the previous appears to be like excellent. However the market by no means repeats the very same sequence. When circumstances shift, the “excellent” EA has no edge—only a fragile reminiscence of the information it already noticed.
Traditional symptom: fairness curve appears to be like like stairs up in 2001–2025 back-test… then falls off a cliff within the first reside month.
2 — Take a look at #1: Stroll-Ahead Validation (WFV)
Cut up historic information into alternating in-sample (practice) and out-of-sample (check) segments. Optimise solely on the practice slices. Run on the unseen check slices. Cross mark: revenue issue & drawdown inside 20 % of practice outcomes.
WFV reveals EAs that solely memorise information as an alternative of capturing a real edge.
3 — Take a look at #2: Out-of-Pattern “Future” 12 months
Take the final 12 months out of your optimisation completely. If the EA can’t survive untouched within the latest information, it received’t survive tomorrow.
(Insert small equity-curve screenshot right here: back-test vs. untouched 2024-25 ahead.)
Pink flag: efficiency drops > 40 % vs. in-sample—probably curve-fitted.
4 — Take a look at #3: Monte Carlo Parameter Shuffle
Randomly perturb entry guidelines, slippage, and spreads for 500 runs.
Search for median fairness curve.If half the simulations crash into > 30 % drawdown, the technique is just too fragile.
5 — Emotional Toll of the “Good” Again-Take a look at
Curve-fitting breeds over-confidence. Merchants crank lot dimension as a result of the back-test by no means dipped 5 %. When the primary reside drawdown hits, panic resets risk-management habits and the account implodes.
6 — From Fragile to Sturdy: A Fast Framework
Step Motion Consequence 1 Run the three exams above Filters 80 % of curve-fitted bots 2 Examine actual ahead information (MyFxBook) Confirms edge in reside fills 3 Implement day by day fairness cap 3–5 % Stops demise spirals
DoIt GBP Grasp — Reside Proof of Sturdy Design
+91 % acquire, < 12 % max drawdown, verified on MyFxBook over a number of volatility regimes. Constructed with fixed-lot restoration, ATR trailing, and a configurable day by day loss cap—no martingale, no curve-fitting methods.
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Inner Deep Dive
Need the complete back-test vs. reside blueprint? Learn Why Again-Checks Usually Lie — And The right way to Repair Them ».
7 — Strive a Sturdy EA in 5 Minutes
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8 — Choice Time
Path Probably Final result Ignore the exams Good curve in Tester, blown reside account Run the exams Weed out fragile bots, hold your capital intact
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