There have been quite a few developments in Texas politics since my put up final month on the MAGA vs RINO US Senate major between incumbent John Cornyn and Legal professional Basic Ken Paxton.
There has even been a little bit of motion from the nominal opposition social gathering.
Earlier than we dive in, let’s evaluation why Bare Captalism readers ought to care about Texas politics:
It’s an enormous state
It’s nearer than it seems
It’s a nationwide cash magnet
It’s on the entrance traces of a GOP civil conflict
With that out of the best way, let’s have a look at what’s occurred within the final month.
The catastrophic July 4th floods in Central Texas killed no less than 132 folks. Maybe as a result of Texas is a MAGA state, a story quickly emerged within the MSM of native, state, and federal malfeasance that contributed to the scope of the tragedy.
Each Cornyn and Paxton have managed to touch upon the floods whereas avoiding the embarrassing gaffes which have dogged Governor Greg Abbott and Cornyn’s US Senate colleague Ted Cruz.
Abbott made a speech stuffed with soccer cliches saying “solely losers level fingers”…whereas pointing his finger on the digital camera.
pic.twitter.com/zlMtteUIi0
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) July 14, 2025
Ted Cruz managed to (as soon as once more) be in another country when catastrophe struck and was accused of touring the Parthenon in Athens in July 5, after the catastrophe struck.
Sadly for Paxton, his long-suffering spouse, Texas State Senator Angela Paxton filed for divorce, citing “Biblical” causes.
pic.twitter.com/PTy8qWh1Cl
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) July 14, 2025
pic.twitter.com/FU8g0zk2Ip
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) July 14, 2025
The rumored “Biblical” cause pic.twitter.com/vgv3VsSsYF
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) July 14, 2025
Fortuitously for Paxton, he has an nearly unbelievable monitor report for surviving scandals that might derail every other political profession.
The chair of the Texas GOP provided a structural clarification for Paxton’s means to outlive allegations of felony securities fraud, taking bribes and different favors from a disgraced actual property magnate, and former incidents of adultery:
Matt Rinaldi, the chair of the Texas GOP who opposed Paxton’s impeachment, mentioned Paxton has been in a position to climate controversy for thus lengthy for 2 causes: He continues to ship on marketing campaign guarantees and GOP voters are contemplating the supply of allegations.
“Individuals don’t belief the allegations towards him as a result of folks don’t belief establishments anymore,” Rinaldi mentioned.
Rinaldi pointed to the trial, the place the credibility of the FBI was a significant subject and a number of Home witnesses expressed religion within the company, which Republicans have more and more come to view with suspicion.
“That encapsulates why folks mistrust all these allegations within the first place,” Rinaldi mentioned
Paxton additionally has a monitor report of crushing opponents in Republican primaries:
As Paxton’s issues worsened, he tied himself nearer than ever to Trump. He filed a failed lawsuit asking the U.S. Supreme Court docket to overturn Trump’s reelection loss in 4 battleground states, and he spoke at a Washington, D.C., rally earlier than the Jan. 6 revolt on the U.S. Capitol. The Texas Bar Affiliation has since sued alleging skilled misconduct associated to his effort to delegitimize the president.
The whistleblower claims have been sufficient to earn Paxton a severe major problem in 2022 from three high-profile candidates: Land Commissioner George P. Bush, former state Supreme Court docket Justice Eva Guzman and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Tyler. Texans for Lawsuit Reform, the highly effective tort reform group, and its donors obtained behind Guzman, exhibiting a brand new willingness by the GOP institution to attempt to cease Paxton.
Bush compelled Paxton to a runoff, however it was not even shut as Paxton took two-thirds of the vote. Paxton leaned on an early reelection endorsement from Trump, and within the runoff, he promised to “finish the Bush dynasty.”
Cornyn can’t be having fun with polling outcomes like this:
…in terms of Cornyn, a majority (54%) of GOP major voters imagine “it’s time for a brand new Republican to be elected U.S. Senator” in contrast with 27% who say, “the U.S. Senator has accomplished a adequate job to deserve re-election.”
Whereas the 2026 GOP major continues to be a good distance off, John Cornyn at the moment trails Ken Paxton in a head-to-head race by greater than 20 factors. In a one-on-one trial warmth, Paxton leads Cornyn 50%-28% amongst GOP major voters. Paxton at the moment leads Cornyn amongst veryconservative GOP major voters (60%-22%), excessive propensity 3/3 GOP major voters (57%-27%), MAGA voters (58%-23%), Seniors (47%-35%), in addition to amongst voters throughout each media market within the state.
Cornyn loses much more floor on an knowledgeable poll check. In an effort to “quick ahead” the race amongst voters in our survey, voters got a second poll check after having them assume that A.) President Trump would endorse John Cornyn; B.) Ken Paxton would assault Cornyn for his previous feedback on Trump, saying that Trump’s “time has handed him by”; and, C.) Ken Paxton would assault Cornyn for, up to now, siding with Democrats on a gun management invoice. Following this data, Ken Paxton’s lead over Cornyn widens to 62%-21%.
The Hill supplied some context for the Cornyn-Paxton race:
…the Texas GOP could be very completely different than it was within the days of dynastic Bushism when Cornyn himself was elected lawyer normal in 1998 or his first Senate marketing campaign 4 years later. However Texas is getting much less like Alabama in terms of politics usually. No Republican presidential candidate has gotten lower than 60 presidential vote in Alabama since 2000, whereas no Republican has accomplished higher than 60 % in Texas since favourite son George W. Bush in 2004.
The true warning signal for Texas Republicans was in 2018, when Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke obtained shut sufficient to Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to make them actually sweat down in Houston. It ended up at a margin of rather less than 3 factors, however it was the very best proof but of Democrats’ lengthy and often exaggerated declare of blue Texas rising. Whereas Cruz fared considerably higher towards then-Rep. Colin Allred (D) in 2024, it is a midterm cycle, and whoever the Republicans nominate for Senate will face a smaller, extra Democratic citizens than the one which got here out for Trump final yr.
That explains why the identical polls that present Cornyn getting brained within the major preserve exhibiting Ken Paxton faring the worst within the normal election. If the lawyer normal does advance to the subsequent spherical, nationwide Republicans must spend probably $200 million to win a race Cornyn would win handily. And if Allred makes one other run for it, he might be the primary Democrat since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988 to win a Senate race in Texas.
In order that’s the place we discover Cornyn caught between the 2 electorates, with just one method out: He has to vary the primary one.
Cornyn has Trump messaging guru Chris LaCivita able to unleash what we are able to count on to be a prairie fireplace of a damaging marketing campaign towards Ken Paxton. That can go a protracted strategy to persuade these frivolously connected Ken Paxton backers. However what Cornyn actually wants is to get tons and many voters who didn’t often take part in Republican primaries to return in and water down the hardcore Ken Paxton vote.
That sounds a bit of like a 2014 contest in Mississippi when then-Sen. Thad Cochran discovered himself in a major runoff with a proto-MAGA challenger, or perhaps even a bit of like how Sen. Lisa Murkowski gained in 2010. He’s an underdog for positive, but when Cornyn can rally the independents and even Democrats who’ve been voting for him for Senate typically elections since 2002 to vote in an open major whereas concurrently torching Ken Paxton’s repute with damaging advertisements, it’s a chance.
And that’s the tight spot the place he’ll discover himself between now and March: staying in adequate graces with MAGA to maintain Trump out of the race on Ken Paxton’s aspect whereas concurrently courting the non-Republicans he might want to be part of a major stampede.
That dilemma goes a protracted strategy to clarify why “Texans for a Conservative Majority, the skin group supporting Cornyn in his major problem from Texas Legal professional Basic Ken Paxton, can have over $12 million money readily available after the present fundraising quarter.”
As for the hapless Democrats, they’ve 4 (or perhaps 5) potential contenders for the nomination, solely certainly one of whom has formally introduced.
The 4 who’re brazenly contemplating the race, former U.S. Reps. Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke, together with U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro and state Rep. James Talarico met nearly in a Zoom assembly earlier this month.
Dallas County Democratic Get together Chairman Kardal Colemansummed up the 4 contenders thusly:
“O’Rourke is center-left,” whereas Castro or Allred “are a bit of bit extra reasonable.” He referred to as Talarico a “TikTok sensation who can attain a lot of folks on-line.”
I’m probably not positive on what foundation Castro or Allred are described as being “extra reasonable” than Beto O’Rourke.
With the potential exception of Talarico, they’re all customary problem neoliberals whose thought of “transferring to the left” entails participating in id politics and tradition conflict points quite than making left-leaning arguments on financial points.
Talarico no less than places an fascinating twist on the tradition conflict stuff by leaning on his personal non secular background:
Sitting in a colorless committee room final month, Texas Rep. James Talarico, among the many youngest members of the statehouse now at 34, was slowly getting fed up as he sat by way of a listening to for a invoice that might mandate placing the Ten Commandments in each public college classroom within the state. Per week prior, he’d sat by way of a committee listening to on a invoice that might enable chaplains to exchange steerage counselors. He was already dreading one other flooring debate scheduled for later within the day for a invoice denying gender-affirming well being care. So by the point the Ten Commandments got here up that morning, Talarico had had it.
He seemed squarely on the invoice’s sponsor, state Rep. Sweet Noble, whom he acknowledged as a fellow “religious Christian,” earlier than letting unfastened a two-minute and nine-second alternate that might go viral on TikTok and Twitter, racking up greater than 1 million views on Twitter alone.
“This invoice to me shouldn’t be solely unconstitutional, it’s not solely un-American, I believe it is usually deeply un-Christian,” he instructed her, as she stood immobile. “And I say that as a result of I imagine this invoice is idolatrous. I imagine it’s exclusionary. And I imagine that it’s boastful, and people three issues, in my studying of the Gospel, are diametrically against the teachings of Jesus.” He cited Matthew 6:5, through which Jesus urges his disciples to not pray publicly just like the hypocrites.
Six days later, he went viral once more for calling out Texas lawmakers after a mass taking pictures in Allen, Texas, that left eight useless. “There’s something profoundly cynical about asking God to resolve an issue that we’re not keen to resolve ourselves,” he mentioned on the home flooring.
David Axelrod, the veteran Democratic strategist, praised Talarico on Twitter. “WATCH THIS:” California Gov. Gavin Newsom tweeted. “Preach,” former Training Secretary Arne Duncan cheered. After each movies went viral, he obtained 12,000 calls and emails in per week’s time, a quantity that might sometimes be nearer to 300.
“The factor that warms my coronary heart probably the most,” he instructed me, “is individuals who say, ‘I’m an atheist, agnostic, or I left the church or I left faith. However that is the form of Christianity I can imagine in.’”
The day after the Democratic Zoom summit, Allred formally entered the race. Allred’s meh efficiency towards Ted Cruz was something however inspirational, however he excels at fundraising and is on the market early.
The Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) helpfully inserted themselves into the dialogue with a ballot claiming that every one 4 males path lightning rod U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett:
Rep. Jasmine Crockett didn’t rule out working within the Texas Democratic Senate major subsequent yr, saying that she has not formally taken steps to that finish however that she is going to decide “relying on how many individuals attain out.”
Crockett addressed the chance in an Instagram put up after the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) revealed a survey that has her main the social gathering’s subject in a hypothetical major. Concretely, she leads the pack with 35% of the help, in comparison with former Senate candidate Colin Allred’s 20%.
Excessive-profile Texas Democrats Beto O’Rourke and Rep. Joaquin Castro each are available third with 13% of the votes, whereas a further 18% selected to not decide a candidate. The survey was carried out amongst 566 doubtless Democratic major voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.03%.
Crockett rose to fame for exchanging trash-talk with mega-MAGA Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene:
Talking to Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, the Georgia Republican recommended that Crockett’s “faux eyelashes” have been getting in the best way of her studying and understanding the purpose of final week’s listening to.
In response, Crockett referred to as out Greene for having a “bleach-blonde, bad-built, butch physique.”
It’s simple to see why the Republicans wish to make Crockett the face of Texas Democrats, however they might discover themselves placing the corrupt Ken Paxton up towards James Talarico, a preacher with the flexibility to go viral.
