Most of you by now have heard of the epic row within the Oval Workplace on Friday, with Trump and Vance turning into more and more heated over Zelensky refusal to fall consistent with Administration plans, from saying he wanted safety ensures with the intention to signal the Ukraine “minerals deal” to disagreeing with the Trump place that negotiating with Putin to finish the battle was a good suggestion, to even disputing Trump’s repeated declare that the US had spent extra on Ukraine than the EU had (the charts on this Monetary Instances article help Zelensky’s claims).
For a fast evaluation, Matt Taibbi has a transcript of the important thing ten minutes of the press convention; yow will discover the total fifty minute video right here.
Some contend that if Zelensky had dealt with himself higher, the simmering battle between Trump and Zelensky wouldn’t have led to this obvious deadly rupture. I encourage to vary.
The yelling match mirrored irreconcilable positions on what both sides thought to be core points. Thought experiment: if Zelensky had been to grovel to Trump and say he was now prepared to signal the minerals pact, do you suppose Trump would say no? He’d relish in his energy play having gotten Zelensky to acknowledge Trump as the large canine and making a visual concession (admittedly, Trump would ask Zelensky for extra, as in a dedication to barter with Russia, which Zelensky would discover a technique to renege on in the end). Even when Trump is saying in any other case now, he holds no fastened stances. However the greater level is that it’s Zelensky that will not proceed with the minerals pact and positively wouldn’t cooperate with negotiations with Russia. So what may occur in an alternate universe is moot.
I even have problem with the declare that Trump and Vance supposed to drive this rupture. They had been muscling, yesiree bob, to get Zelensky to execute the minerals pact. Allow us to not overlook what had already transpired: Zelensky had supplied Ukraines’s wealth, first to the Biden Administration, later to Trump and in his Victory Plan, in return for safety ensures. Trump then tried to outrageously retrade the supply by insisting that the purported $350 billion the US had spent on Ukraine (the Wall Avenue Journal, amongst others, challenges this declare) ought to be repaid, when that help was by no means within the type of loans. Ought to Taiwan fear about equally getting a cost demand from Trump? And allow us to not overlook that the US put up Ukraine to this battle through serving to arm and practice its forces throughout the Minsk and Minsk 2 duplicities and having Boris Johnson act as our emissary (confirmed later by Samantha Energy in her ebook) to scupper the Istanbul peace deal…with US and NATO and NATO member state leaders promising with one voice that we’d help Ukraine for so long as it took?
In different phrases, though Zelensky was by no means a sympathetic or admirable character (when you had been paying consideration), Western habits on this battle has been reprehensible.
When you evaluation the previous week or so of reports, it exhibits clearly that Zelensky was not eager about going to Washington. Alexander Mercouris argues, and it’s actually believable, that the determined and deluded Macron-Starmer tag staff had satisfied themselves that they may get Trump to ensure the safety of UK and French “reassurance” forces, though Russia is sustaining no method, no how will they tolerate any NATO (or different) forces in Ukraine ex the approval of the UN Safety Council, the place Russia has a veto. The scheme was then after getting these commitments from Trump, Zelensky would agency up the association through accepting the minerals pact. Boris Johnson was selling it as offering de facto safety to Ukraine through elevated presence; some have speculated that the previous Prime Minister additionally talked to Zelensky, however I’ve but to see any proof.
Nevertheless, regardless of his reluctance, Zelensky determined to make the journey, making clear that his agreeing to the minerals pact was not a given. He mentioned he wanted to listen to what Trump needed to say about safety ensures. So Zelensky has not budged from his unique place, though he may need been prepared to just accept verbal assurances (as if these had been credible from the US in gentle of “not one inch additional east” and the aforementioned help of Ukraine “for so long as it takes”). However given the parlous state of Ukraine and Zelensky’s rule, any confidence-builder could be sufficient.
There are equally rumors that the disastrous assembly was partly attributable to dangerous American recommendation to Zelensky:
Blinken, Rice, Nuland, and Vindman convention name with Zelenskyy on the flight to DC advising him to “stand sturdy” and “be robust” and “do not let Trump bully you”appears to have backfired 😂😂😂
— Peachy Keenan (@KeenanPeachy) February 28, 2025
Regardless, when you have a look at the transcript, Trump and Vance resorted to the extremely irregular gadget of getting a personal dialogue after which calling the press in for a press convention. Trump lately used the identical trick with the King Abdullah of Jordan. The King had apparently not been advised of the press convention plan, the place Trump advised reporters that the King had agreed to his Gaza ethnic cleaning plan and can be taking in Palestinians. Abdullah didn’t confront Trump however as quickly as he may, issued agency denials of any such consent.
Trump in his opening remarks, during which Trump talks up each the minerals deal and his talks with Putin, tells Zelensky that “It’s one thing that you really want and that he desires” and that Zelensky will likely be becoming a member of him and others in a lunch assembly after which will signal the minerals pact. So in step with widespread expectations earlier than the assembly, Trump was ready to have Zelensky signal on.
Zelensky instantly centered on the outtrade:
ZELENSKY: Thanks a lot, Mr. President. Thanks for invitation. And actually I hope that this doc, first doc will likely be first step to actual safety ensures for Ukraine, our folks, our youngsters. I actually matter on it. And naturally we depend that America won’t cease help. Actually for us, it’s crucial to help and to proceed it. I wish to talk about it with particulars for them throughout our dialog and naturally the infrastructure or safety ensures.
The wheels come off as Zelensky additionally instantly pushes again on the concept Putin might be trusted whilst Trump doubles down, and likewise will get right into a spat over Trump’s insistence that the US supplied extra help than Europe. As Taibbi famous:
“25 instances [Putin’s] damaged stop hearth,” Zelensky mentioned.
“He by no means broke to me,” snapped Trump, realizing the assembly had moved into deeper water.
From there it was apparent the 2 sides had basically completely different understandings. Trump and Vance clearly noticed the minerals deal as a crucial precursor to creating a safety take care of Putin. Zelensky in the meantime started speaking as if he supposed to maintain combating with or with out American help. One can name that courageous, however as soon as Trump and Vance realized they’d invited a throng of worldwide media to have Zelensky name them out on their dwelling ice, the temper turned ugly quick.
However keep in mind, though this getting this ugly in public was clearly not crucial, a crack-up of some type appeared inevitable. As Simplicius identified:
Firstly, let’s once more point out the epistemic three-way deadlock that has lately surfaced, which we spoke about final time: Ukraine doesn’t need diplomacy with no safety assure; US desires a ceasefire earlier than main offers with Russia; Russia doesn’t need a ceasefire with out its personal safety ensures. Regardless of what went on in the present day, Trump solely yesterday appeared to show his unrealistic understanding regarding the battle. He acknowledged in a press convention not solely that he would attempt to get Ukraine as a lot of its land again as doable, however—and that is the large one—that he thinks Ukraine would possibly be capable to get a few of its shoreline again:
Granted, he may be egging the press on, and placing on appearances for the sake of enjoying the peacemaker. Give it some thought: what shoreline may Ukraine presumably get again? The Azov Sea, which might necessitate returning Mariupol or Melitopol, components of Kherson and Zaporozhye? Or does he really suppose Russia may give again Crimea itself?….
And for that matter, we completely should embody these subsequent important displays into the proof. Simply yesterday, Lavrov once more decisively put the ultimate phrase on the matter of ceasefires when he defined that there’ll completely be no ceasefires “alongside the present contact line”
I’m inclined to suppose that the weird Trump point out of retaking Ukraine coast was to throw a bone to Zelensky. However that throwaway would have been deeply alarming to the already distrustful Russians.
Confirming Simplicius, progress within the US-Russia talks is sluggish. The skilled had an over 6 hour second assembly in Riyadh. From the Russian Ministry of Overseas Affairs web site:
In accordance with the directions from the overseas coverage management of each nations, the events meticulously explored avenues to beat quite a few irritants inherited from earlier US administrations. Joint measures had been agreed upon to make sure the unfettered mutual financing of Russian and US diplomatic missions’ operations and to determine applicable situations for diplomats to fulfil their official duties.
The consultations additionally addressed points associated to Russian diplomatic properties in the USA, with a selected give attention to the restitution of six premises unlawfully seized between 2016 and 2018. The need of reaching tangible outcomes to foster situations conducive to bettering bilateral relations, within the pursuits of each nations, was underscored. Specifically, the American aspect was inspired to contemplate the restoration of direct air service between the 2 nations.
So the one addition to the agenda was restoring flights between Russia and the US. In different phrases, the larger points have but to even be tabled, not to mention a course of for contemplating them to be devised.
What occurs now? One in style perspective is that Zelensky must stop sooner reasonably than later. Russian Overseas Ministry spokesperson has discovered a brand new excessive register in her denunciation of Zelensky within the wake of his White Home debacle. As an illustration:
Together with his outrageously impolite behaviour throughout his keep in Washington, Zelensky re-affirmed his standing of essentially the most harmful risk to the worldwide group as an irresponsible determine that may fire up an enormous battle. It have to be clear to everybody that this type of assaults coming from a terrorist chief are fairly unambiguous.
This cynical particular person will stoop to something in pursuit of his targets and is obsessive about preserving the facility he has usurped. This is the reason he has destroyed the opposition, constructed a totalitarian state and is ruthlessly sending thousands and thousands of his fellow residents to their deaths. Below the more and more deteriorating political situations, this determine is unable to point out a way of duty and is subsequently obsessive about persevering with the battle and rejects peace, which suggests dying to him.
Unprecedented within the historical past of worldwide politics and diplomacy, a dressing down given to Zelensky by the US president within the White Home can also be indicative of the political weak spot and excessive ethical degradation of the European leaders who proceed to help the maniac chief of the Nazi regime who has misplaced contact with actuality.
However I’m not positive how possible it’s for Zelensky to make a clear exit even when he needed to. Do not forget that he obtained over 70% of the vote in 2019 and ran on a platform of normalizing relations with Russia. However my impression was that earlier than then, the US neocons and buddies had gotten Banderites into key positions in authorities, method in extra of their illustration in society or the Rada (1% to 2% as of then). I recall seeing Chrystia Freeland interview George Soros a few years earlier than that. Soros bragged that 15% of the folks within the Ukraine authorities (by that he meant the Administration, not the legislature) had both personally gotten Open Society grants or had a direct member of the family how had. Now getting an Open Society grant doesn’t essentially imply being a Banderite, nevertheless it does imply being Russia hostile. And recall additionally that the Banderite within the post-Maidan regime snagged positions within the inner policing-security equipment, so they may use drive. It’s not exhausting to think about that the Zelensky reversal was attributable to threats to his security. Different politicians had been badly crushed and at the least one had been killed.
Even assuming the Ukraine authorities is coming to acknowledge that its goose is cooked, the Banderites could be in Fuhrer-bunker mode. Russia has promised battle crimes trials. Russia would doubtless go to some lengths to seek out outstanding neo-Nazi figures. Zelensky has to imagine the partitions have ears so far as his Banderite minders are involved, save maybe when he can meet overseas officers in non-public. And the Banderites have an escalatogical bent, so they may choose to trip on a white horse into the flames reasonably than go to Canada, get cosmetic surgery, and conceal out with Galicians.
Within the meantime, simply three hours in the past, Zelensky put up a tweetstorm that signifies he’s persisting as finest he can in his present course:
We’re very grateful to the USA for all of the help. I’m grateful to President Trump, Congress for his or her bipartisan help, and American folks. Ukrainians have at all times appreciated this help, particularly throughout these three years of full-scale invasion. pic.twitter.com/Z9FlWjF101
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 1, 2025
Zelensky is to fulfill with Keir Starmer. The Unbiased stories that the Europeans are attempting to make use of the rift to worm their method in:
Donald Trump “must type out this mess as a lot as Zelensky”, Sir Malcolm Rifkind has advised The Unbiased, warning that the US president “can not ship a deal until Zelensky agrees”.
Backing Sir Keir Starmer’s method to the scenario to date, Sir Malcolm – who has beforehand served as each defence secretary and overseas secretary – mentioned European leaders ought to assist to mediate between the Ukrainian and US presidents.
And the even greater query: how lengthy can Ukraine sustain the battle? There are two ranges to this query: will the Trump Administration take fast and punitive motion, similar to chopping off entry to intel, similar to satellite tv for pc knowledge, and comms, most of all Starlink to drive a Zelensky resignation or ouster? A wee downside is that two of the highest pretenders to the throne, former common Valerii Zaluzhny and Petro Poroshenko, are additionally strongly anti-Russian and can in all probability do their finest to sandbag a deal.
Or will it assume that no arms shipments and dangerous press will do the trick and result in much more desertions and refusals of orders?
Within the meantime, Zelensky has many backers, even when they aren’t able to do him a lot good. A number of of ample examples:
This is not about Zelenskyy, a patriot and hero. That is about an American administration penetrated and compromised by America’s enemies.
— David Frum (@davidfrum) March 1, 2025
That is totally repulsive!
Trump and Vance simply tried to humiliate Zelensky reside on American TV, smugly demanding gratitude whereas brazenly mocking him like playground bullies counting favors. My respect for Zelensky—and my embarrassment as an American—simply surged off the charts.… pic.twitter.com/0C4d03PDmi
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) February 28, 2025
One other view:
⚡️🇬🇧🇺🇦British soldier has a message for the world from the Ukrainian frontline: pic.twitter.com/N1UAo4jLSi
— SIMPLICIUS Ѱ (@simpatico771) March 1, 2025
If that is bona fide, it says that some in Ukraine don’t wish to surrender regardless of the excessive price.
So this isn’t over till the fats woman indicators. And regardless of all of the excessive drama, that has but to occur.
