Hello. Gold broke the higher restrict in 2024. And it nonetheless reveals no signal of stopping. New threats of tariffs from Trump and a failed peace deal add extra uncertainty and, therefore, might push Gold up for the following few weeks. I do not suppose Gold can be rising ceaselessly, although. Because the pic reveals, the final time it rose so shortly was in 2020. It misplaced a 3rd of its achieve within the subsequent yr. I don’t suppose it can begin rolling again in March. I’ll control the political occasions this month, and I’ll replace this evaluation initially of April.
What about Oil? As we are able to see within the pic, Oil has already tried 3 occasions to interrupt the 50-week common, and all in useless. Oil continues to go down since its peak in 2022. It’s the tariffs that threaten to decelerate the financial development. It’s nonetheless unclear whether or not Trump will apply tariffs to “automobiles and all different issues” from the EU. And it’s nonetheless unclear whether or not Trump’s promise to “drill it, child” can be applied this yr. If these two occasions truly happen, Oil might hunch all the way down to about 40-50 USD per barrel.
The financial development can not decide up, however the recession is over. Powell and Lagarde think about additional charge cuts. EURUSD is under the 50-week common, and it begins trying up. If the world has had sufficient of the conflicts and the recession is over, it’s fairly the time for EURUSD to go away from the 1.0 parity and obtain its first purpose of 1.20. My forecast is that EURUSD will attain 1.10 in March.
