Retail Sales Stir Concerns as the Fed Prepares Its Policy Update

Weekly Outlook

This week began off with a bang with the month-to-month determine dropping at 8:30 a.m. ET. Ordinarily, the retail gross sales determine won’t pack that a lot of a punch, however given the current worries round shopper spending and confidence, at present’s determine is definitely fairly significant. 

Nonetheless, the massive information merchandise this week ought to come on Wednesday when the offers its newest replace. 

The bond market is assured that the Fed is not going to lower rates of interest this week, however traders are awaiting an replace from Chairman Jerome Powell. They need to know the way the Fed is viewing the present market volatility and is searching for reassurance about inflation and the financial system. 

In the case of earnings, a number of studies nonetheless stand out. 

First, a number of Chinese language EV shares will report this week, with Xpeng (NYSE:) reporting on Tuesday morning and NIO reporting on Friday morning. 

We’ll additionally hear from Micron (NASDAQ:), FedEx (NYSE:) and Nike (NYSE:) on Thursday afternoon, earlier than Carnival (NYSE:) studies on Friday morning. 

The setup — SoFi

SoFi Applied sciences (NASDAQ:) exploded above $18 in late January, however has pulled again considerably amid the current market decline, dipping beneath $11 on Friday. The decline despatched shares all the way down to the 200-day shifting common, which acted as assist. 

Discover the current highs from final week: Monday’s excessive of $12.17, Wednesday’s excessive of $12.12, Thursday’s excessive of $12.09 and Friday’s excessive of $12.12. Clearly, this zone has been appearing as current resistance. 

Chart as of the shut on 3/14/2025. Supply: eToro ProCharts, courtesy of TradingView.

If SOFI inventory can clear this short-term resistance space and keep above it, then it’d be capable of maintain a bigger upside rebound. 

For long run bulls much less involved about final week’s worth motion, they’ll need to see the current lows and the 200-day shifting common maintain as assist. In the event that they fail to take action, extra promoting stress might ensue. If assist holds although, a bigger rebound might happen. 

Choices

For some traders, choices could possibly be one different to invest on SOFI. Keep in mind, the chance for choices patrons is tied to the premium paid for the choice — and shedding the premium is the complete threat. 

Bulls can make the most of calls or name spreads to invest on the additional upside, whereas bears can use places or put spreads to invest on the features really fizzling out and SOFI rolling over.

What Wall Avenue is Watching

BTC – ended within the inexperienced final week, climbing about 2.3%. Whereas the transfer is modest, it ended a two-week shedding streak and got here on the heels of a 14.4% loss within the prior week. Nonetheless, bulls need to see if BTC can regain the $90,000 stage. 

NVDA – Nvidia (NASDAQ:) was the best-performing Magnificent 7 inventory on Friday, gaining over 5%. Regardless of some market weak point this morning, NVDA shares are up greater than 1% in pre-market buying and selling. Bulls are hoping the current rebound can proceed as Nvidia’s GTC occasion might be in full focus. 

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Disclaimer: Please word that because of market volatility, a few of the costs could have already been reached and eventualities performed out. Content material, analysis, instruments, and inventory symbols displayed are for academic functions solely and don’t suggest a suggestion or solicitation to interact in any particular funding technique. All investments contain threat, losses could exceed the quantity of principal invested, and previous efficiency doesn’t assure future outcomes.