Yves right here. Each huge metropolis has its personal financial dynamics, and New York has some distinctive ones: the significance of Massive Finance, tourism, and Broadway. IMHO, one other key trade, well being care, is usually omitted. A non-trivial quantity come from exterior the state and even exterior the US for therapy. As an illustration, rich Arabs will come to Bangkok for pretty routine surgical procedures like stents, however most cancers? New York Metropolis’s prime hospitals are the popular venue. The article admittedly does point out the large blow that the lack of medical analysis grants would have on New York’s educating hospitals. Talking of most cancers, pal’s spouse, a Mongolian who studied in Chinese language non-public colleges, received her MD in Japan, after which an PhD at Yale (so sure, fluent in 4 languages) has been a most cancers researcher for many years at one in all these establishments. Will her work be on the chopping block?
This piece recounts how most main New York Metropolis sectors have been doing properly at first of the yr, however a number of the internals, as merchants prefer to say, are flashing warning indicators.
Readings from different components of the US and cities all over the world welcomed.
By Greg David. Initially revealed at THE CITY on March 18, 2025
A SoHo retailer advertises an enormous mark-down alongside Broadway, Sept. 19, 2024. Credit score: Ben Fractenberg/THE CITY
New York Metropolis is caught in the course of two crosscurrents that can decide whether or not the native economic system will proceed to develop this yr or plunge right into a recession.
Massive Wall Avenue bonuses, power in tourism and an enormous enhance in jobs final yr are in a tug of warfare with customers slicing again on spending, Trump administration insurance policies that deter guests from coming to New York and federal finances cuts that would price 1000’s of jobs within the coming months.
And with the mayor’s race underway, the administration of Mayor Eric Adams sees the glass as overflowing — and his opponents as greater than half empty.
“The numbers don’t lie: New York Metropolis retains breaking jobs information,” mentioned Jeff Holmes, a spokesman for the town Financial Growth Company. “With this administration’s give attention to pro-family, pro-housing, and pro-business insurance policies, it’s no shock that there’s extra financial alternative than ever. Mix file jobs with new Census knowledge displaying that our inhabitants grew by 122,000 during the last two years, and it’s clear that New York Metropolis is robust and thriving.”
Metropolis Comptroller Brad Lander, who’s operating towards Adams for mayor, disagrees.
“Knowledge present indicators that companies and households alike are bracing for the fallout of the brand new nationwide posture,” he mentioned in an financial report issued final week. “Trump’s commerce wars danger worsening the affordability disaster at a time when New Yorkers are already confronting excessive rents and struggling to maintain up with the prices of on a regular basis items.”
Knowledge launched within the final week reveals the power of the economic system in the meanwhile. The excellent news started with large bonuses paid out by Wall Avenue this winter.
The payouts, which comprise a big share compensation at securities corporations, seem to have jumped 37% this yr in keeping with the newest financial report from Lander, which might make the bonuses complete greater than $45 billion. Wall Avenue accounts for 27% of state and seven% of metropolis tax income, that means the bonuses are funneling billions of revenue tax {dollars} into state and metropolis coffers.
Lodge occupancy topped 70% in each January and February, up barely from final yr, and the income per room jumped by nearly 10% because of robust demand.
Attendance on Broadway has surpassed 2019’s file audiences for many weeks since November. Developments on the Nice White Manner exemplify the significance of vacationers to the town’s economic system, since guests account for nearly two-thirds of Broadway theatergoers.
As well as, job progress was particularly robust final yr. The state labor division on Thursday elevated the overall acquire for the yr by barely greater than 40,000 to a file 4.84 million jobs, with vital will increase within the high-paying monetary {and professional} providers sectors.
TV and movie jobs recovered from final yr’s strikes rather more sharply on the finish of the yr than beforehand reported, and media jobs cuts have been barely lower than thought. Nonetheless, the broad info sector stays 15,000 jobs under the 2022 peak of 245,000.
The one Achilles’ heel of the job panorama is that two-thirds of final yr’s enhance got here from low-paying well being care positions.
Whereas all these indicators are robust, bother lies forward. Client sentiment is weakening, yellow lights are flashing about summer season journey, Wall Avenue’s expectations of one other banner yr haven’t been fulfilled and the Trump administration cancellation of billions of {dollars} in analysis grants is sort of sure to result in huge job losses quickly within the metropolis.
Whereas native retail gross sales usually are not tracked, gross sales tax income has been subdued for the final eight months, the Lander report famous. Eating places appear to have been significantly laborious hit. Nationwide numbers for client sentiment and February gross sales paint a very bleak image, which is prone to be the identical for New York.
“Many homeowners say their enterprise is down in comparison with final yr,” mentioned Andrew Rigie, government director of the New York Hospitality Alliance. They cite the financial uncertainties created by Trump’s financial insurance policies and, given the power of tourism, alerts a cutback by locals.
Whereas the town’s tourism company New York Metropolis Tourism + Conventions predicted in December that the variety of guests this yr would break the 2019 file of 67 million, that forecast now appears doubtful.
Delta, Southwest Airways and American Airways all decreased their anticipated income predictions for the start of the yr, with journey dropping for the bottom fares and inside the US.
Worse, Trump insurance policies are angering many potential worldwide guests, who’re essential to New York as a result of they keep longer and spend greater than home vacationers.
The analysis agency Tourism Economics Monday mentioned Monday it expects a 5.1% decline in visits to the U.S. in contrast with its earlier prediction of an 8.8% enhance. Spending by international vacationers is predicted to tumble 11%, representing a lack of $18 billion this yr.
Particularly problematic for New York is the rising anti-American sentiment in Canada sparked by Trump’s calls for that it turn out to be the 51st state may price New York dearly, since Canadians are the second largest group of worldwide guests to the town.
New bookings to the US from Canada have declined about 20% since Feb. 1 in contrast with the year-ago interval, in keeping with Ahead Keys, a flight ticketing knowledge agency.
Wall Avenue was supposed to present a jolt to the town’s economic system this yr because the 2024 Republican victory would end in a significant tax reduce invoice boosting earnings and spurring inventory market positive aspects. The Trump administration anti-regulatory perspective would spur mergers and acquisitions, a key supply of earnings for securities corporations.
As an alternative, worries about what tariffs would do to inflation and financial progress have despatched the foremost inventory market indices down about 10%, which is named a correction. The M&A wave, which might be value billions in charges to securities corporations, has did not materialize as financial uncertainty has paralyzed company choice making.
The Trump downsizing of the federal authorities may see pink slips given to the 52,000 New York Metropolis residents with federal jobs. However a fair larger quantity may come from analysis grant cutbacks which fund 1000’s of jobs within the metropolis.
Statewide, the Nationwide Institute of Well being gives over $3.5 billion to greater than 250 entities with a lot of the funds going to the state’s main biomedical, most cancers and different well being care analysis. The Better New York Hospital Affiliation mentioned that the transfer to remove funds for overhead may result in a discount of $850 million.
Whereas no particular estimates of the affect in New York can be found, John Hopknis College in Baltimore, laid off 2,000 staff final week due to the squeeze.
“The affect of those cuts can be far-reaching,” a gaggle of enterprise leaders wrote the state’s congressional delegation in urging them to revive the cash and battle extra cuts. “Our members depend on these establishments to construct a professional workforce and to conduct important analysis that drives trade innovation.”
